SpaceX shares could come under renewed pressure on Thursday as the company’s first post-IPO lockup period expires, allowing early investors to sell a portion of their holdings for the first time since the space company’s stock market debut.
More than 911 million shares will become eligible for trading, representing approximately 7% of SpaceX’s outstanding shares. The newly unlocked shares exceed the 639 million shares sold during the company’s record-breaking initial public offering, raising expectations of increased market supply.
The development comes after a volatile start to SpaceX’s life as a publicly traded company, with the stock losing more than half of its value from its mid-June peak.
Stock Has Fallen Sharply Since June High
SpaceX made a strong debut on the Nasdaq in June, with its shares climbing to $150 before surging above $225 within days of listing. However, investor sentiment has weakened significantly over the past eight weeks.
The stock closed at $108.27 on Wednesday, leaving it more than 50% below its mid-June high. Selling pressure intensified after the company reported in its first earnings release that capital expenditure was more than twice its revenue.
| SpaceX Stock Snapshot | Details |
|---|---|
| IPO Listing | June 2026 |
| IPO Trading Price | $150 |
| Post-IPO Peak | Above $225 |
| Latest Closing Price | $108.27 |
| Decline From Peak | More than 50% |
| Shares Unlocking (Aug. 6) | 911 million |
| Shares Sold in IPO | 639 million |
Lockup Expiry Could Increase Market Supply
The expiration of the initial lockup period allows certain early investors to begin selling their shares, potentially increasing the supply of stock available in the market.
Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities, said the immediate direction of the stock could depend more on the lockup expiry than on the company’s business fundamentals.
“Near-term path” may be more affected by the lockup lifting than any fundamentals or strategy, Martin said.
Analysts at Mizuho also noted that while the increase in shares eligible for sale is significant, investors should not assume that every newly unlocked share will immediately enter the market.
“While the step-up in potential supply is meaningful, we think investors should understand that shares becoming eligible for sale does not mean the full tranche will be offered into the market,” Mizuho analysts said.
More Share Unlocks Scheduled in Coming Months
The August lockup expiry marks only the first phase of a broader release schedule outlined in the company’s IPO prospectus, with additional batches of shares expected to become eligible for trading later this month and through the autumn.
Additional Share Unlocks Planned Through October
According to the company’s IPO prospectus, Thursday’s unlock is only the first in a series of scheduled releases that will increase the number of shares eligible for trading over the coming months.
| Expected Unlock Date | Shares Becoming Eligible for Trading |
|---|---|
| August 6, 2026 | More than 911 million shares |
| August 20, 2026 | Approximately 319 million shares |
| September 2026 | Roughly 700 million shares |
| October 2026 | Close to 700 million shares |
These scheduled lockup expiries could further increase the stock’s public float as additional early investors become eligible to sell their holdings.
Elon Musk’s Stake Remains Locked
Despite the latest share unlock, Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder and largest shareholder, will not be able to sell his stake at this stage.
Musk owns more than 6 billion SpaceX shares, making him by far the company’s largest shareholder. According to the lockup terms, his holdings will remain restricted until June 2027.
Atlanta Falcons Star Plans to Sell His Investment
Among the investors expected to take advantage of the first lockup expiry is Jessie Bates III, a safety for the Atlanta Falcons.
Bates said he invested about $150,000 in SpaceX shares in 2022, when the company was valued at approximately $127 billion. With SpaceX now carrying a valuation of about $1.43 trillion, his investment could be worth more than $1.5 million.
In a statement provided through his publicist, Bates said he intends to sell all of his shares in order to “lock in gains.”
His investments are managed by Michael Ledo, Chief Executive Officer of RISE Family Office, which also oversees investments in several pre-IPO companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Cart.com and Turo.
Strategic Expansion Remains in Focus
Although Bates plans to exit his investment, he indicated he could consider buying SpaceX shares again if the company pursues additional strategic acquisitions that create new growth opportunities.
Earlier this year, SpaceX merged with Musk’s xAI in a transaction valuing the combined company at approximately $1.25 trillion. Before its public listing, the company also agreed to acquire Cursor in a $60 billion deal that is expected to close during the current quarter.
What Investors Are Watching
Investors will be closely monitoring trading volumes and selling activity as the first batch of post-IPO shares becomes available. While analysts caution that eligibility to sell does not necessarily translate into immediate sales, the staggered release of additional shares over the next several months could remain an important factor influencing SpaceX’s stock performance.
