SpaceX Earnings in Focus After Post-IPO Stock Slump Wipes Out More Than $500 Billion in Market Value

SpaceX is set to release its first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company this week, with investors closely watching whether the aerospace and technology firm can restore confidence after a steep decline in its share price following its market debut.

Since beginning trading on June 12, the company has lost more than $500 billion in market value. Shares have fallen for four consecutive weeks and are trading more than 50% below their intraday peak, making SpaceX’s early stock market performance one of the most closely watched stories on Wall Street.

The earnings report, scheduled to be released after the market closes on Tuesday, comes amid heightened scrutiny of companies led by Elon Musk. The update follows a disappointing earnings season for Tesla, where investors raised concerns over rising costs, negative free cash flow and the pace of its Robotaxi expansion.

Investors Look Beyond Quarterly Numbers

Unlike many of the world’s largest technology companies, analysts say SpaceX’s valuation depends heavily on long-term expectations rather than current financial performance.

With a market capitalization of about $1.4 trillion, the company continues to trade at a high valuation despite reporting significant cash burn and carrying substantially more debt than cash. Based on trailing revenue, its price-to-sales ratio remains in the 70s, underscoring investor expectations for future growth.

Market participants are expected to focus less on quarterly earnings and more on management’s outlook for the company’s long-term strategy, including space launches, satellite communications and artificial intelligence.

Post-IPO Selling Pressure Adds to Volatility

SpaceX shares have also come under pressure from the expected expiration of lock-up restrictions, which will allow early investors to begin selling their holdings over the coming days.

The prospect of additional shares entering the market has added to investor caution, while short sellers have benefited from the stock’s decline.

According to Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3 Partners, traders betting against the stock had accumulated approximately $8.3 billion in paper profits as of Friday.

Unterman described the increase in bearish positions as one of the fastest and most aggressive seen for a newly listed mega-cap company ahead of its first earnings report.

Analysts Remain Divided on the Stock

Despite the sharp pullback, some analysts believe the decline presents an opportunity for long-term investors.

Ben Harwood of New Street Research said the recent weakness has created an attractive entry point, citing the company’s long-term growth potential and competitive position.

New Street initiated coverage of SpaceX before its public listing with a target price of $165. The stock closed at $108.37 on Friday.

While opinions differ over the company’s near-term prospects, analysts broadly agree that Tuesday’s earnings report will be judged primarily on SpaceX’s strategic outlook rather than its current financial results.

Starship Program Remains Central to Growth Strategy

A key focus for investors will be the progress of SpaceX’s Starship program, which the company considers essential to its long-term business model.

Designed as a fully reusable launch system, Starship is expected to significantly reduce the cost of sending cargo and people into space while supporting the rapid expansion of the company’s Starlink satellite network. SpaceX also sees the rocket as a foundation for future projects involving orbital data centers, satellite communications and long-term space exploration.

In its IPO filing, the company warned that delays in achieving full reusability or rapid turnaround for Starship could lead to higher launch costs, slower deployment of satellite constellations, delayed revenue growth and increased capital requirements.

SpaceX has said it expects Starship to begin delivering payloads into orbit during the second half of this year.

Latest Test Flight Shows Progress and Challenges

The company completed the 13th test flight of the nearly 400-foot-tall Starship rocket on July 24 from Starbase, Texas.

During the mission, the Super Heavy booster successfully separated from the Starship spacecraft about two minutes after liftoff before descending toward the Gulf of Mexico.

SpaceX later said the landing sequence did not go entirely as planned because only some of the booster engines successfully restarted before touchdown, resulting in what the company described as a “hard splashdown.”

Even so, analysts continue to view Starship as one of the most important factors supporting SpaceX’s long-term valuation.

AI Expansion and Data Center Business Under Scrutiny

Investors are also expected to seek updates on SpaceX’s expanding artificial intelligence strategy following its merger with Elon Musk’s xAI earlier this year.

Analysts are likely to focus on the company’s investment in AI infrastructure, computing capacity and its planned acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor in a deal valued at $60 billion. The transaction is expected to close during the third quarter, subject to regulatory approval.

SpaceX has also been expanding its hosted-compute business by leasing excess data center capacity to major technology companies.

The company recently signed an agreement with Google that is expected to generate approximately $920 million per month by providing AI computing capacity. Earlier agreements with Anthropic and Reflection AI have also added to this growing business segment.

Meanwhile, Grok, the AI chatbot developed through xAI, has secured contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense but has also faced regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges related to its image-generation tools.

Management Outlook Expected to Drive Investor Sentiment

Several research firms continue to maintain positive long-term views despite recent share price weakness.

Bernstein analysts said investor confidence will depend more on management’s outlook for future growth than on the quarterly financial results themselves. Along with Starship, the firm highlighted semiconductor availability, regulatory approvals and computing capacity as critical issues for the company.

Cantor analysts also expressed optimism, saying stronger earnings, growing hosted-compute revenue and greater clarity around capital spending could help ease investor concerns following the post-IPO decline.

As SpaceX prepares to report its first earnings as a listed company, investors will be looking for evidence that its ambitious plans in launch services, satellite communications and artificial intelligence can justify one of the highest valuations in the technology sector.