Gold Price Today: Bullion Extends Gains on Rate Cut Hopes as MCX Gold Surges Above ₹1.50 Lakh
Gold Price Today:Gold prices continued their upward momentum on Friday, with bullion strengthening in both domestic and international markets as investors increased buying amid expectations that easing inflationary pressures could provide the US Federal Reserve with greater scope to lower interest rates. The positive sentiment was also supported by softer US Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and sustained demand for precious metals.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for October delivery climbed ₹1,272, or 0.85%, to ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams. Trading activity remained healthy, with volumes reaching 1,283 lots. In international markets, gold futures traded in New York gained 1.13% to $4,287.50 an ounce, reflecting continued investor interest in the safe-haven asset.
The latest gains have placed bullion on course for a strong weekly performance, with gold advancing by around 5% over the week as financial markets reassess the outlook for inflation, interest rates and global economic conditions.
Gold Price Today: Key Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Latest Update |
|---|---|
| MCX Gold Futures (October) | ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams |
| Daily Gain | ₹1,272 (0.85%) |
| Trading Volume | 1,283 lots |
| Global Gold Futures | $4,287.50 per ounce |
| International Gain | 1.13% |
| Weekly Performance | Approximately 5% gain |
Why Are Gold Prices Rising?
The latest rally in bullion has been driven by a combination of domestic and global factors that have strengthened investor demand for precious metals. Expectations that inflationary pressures may continue to ease have encouraged market participants to anticipate a less restrictive monetary policy stance from the US Federal Reserve, improving the appeal of gold.
Lower US Treasury yields have also supported the upward movement in prices by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. At the same time, a softer US dollar has made bullion relatively more attractive to overseas buyers, adding further momentum to the rally.
Fresh buying in futures markets and continued demand from investors seeking portfolio stability have also contributed to the positive trend. Together, these factors have helped gold outperform many other asset classes during the week.
Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns
Another factor supporting bullion has been the decline in crude oil prices during the week. According to the market update, crude prices fell by more than 7% as concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East eased. Oil briefly slipped below $80 a barrel before recovering to above $83.
Lower energy prices are generally viewed as easing inflationary pressures across the broader economy. For financial markets, that has strengthened expectations that central banks could face less pressure to maintain restrictive monetary policies, creating a favourable environment for gold prices.
Gold also received support earlier in the week from improved optimism surrounding easing tensions between the United States and Iran, which helped improve overall market sentiment while reducing concerns about a prolonged spike in energy prices.
US Economic Data Strengthens Bullish Sentiment for Gold
Recent economic data from the United States has further reinforced positive sentiment in the bullion market. Investors have been closely analysing labour market indicators for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, as employment trends remain one of the key factors influencing interest rate decisions.
The ADP National Employment Report showed that private payrolls increased by just 44,000 jobs in July, significantly below market expectations. The report also revised June’s payroll figure downward to 95,000 jobs, adding to concerns that hiring momentum in the US economy is slowing.
The weaker employment data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could adopt a less hawkish stance if inflation continues to moderate. Lower interest rates generally improve the appeal of gold because the precious metal does not generate interest income, making it more attractive when borrowing costs decline.
However, the economic picture remains mixed. Weekly US jobless claims fell to 199,000, below the expected 205,000, suggesting that parts of the labour market continue to show resilience. A sustained improvement in employment conditions could support expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer.
US Non-Farm Payrolls Report in Sharp Focus
Market participants are now awaiting the release of the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to provide fresh insight into the strength of the labour market and the likely direction of Federal Reserve policy.
A weaker-than-expected payroll reading could increase expectations of future interest rate cuts, a development that has historically been supportive for gold prices. Conversely, stronger labour market data could reduce expectations for policy easing and influence short-term movements in bullion.
Alongside employment data, investors are also monitoring developments in the Middle East and upcoming US inflation figures, both of which are expected to remain important drivers of sentiment in global precious metals markets.
Key Factors Supporting the Gold Rally
- Fresh buying interest in domestic and global futures markets.
- Lower US Treasury yields reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
- A softer US dollar improving bullion’s appeal for international investors.
- Expectations that easing inflation could allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
- Crude oil prices declining more than 7% during the week, helping ease inflation concerns.
- Improved market sentiment following signs of easing tensions between the United States and Iran.
- Weaker-than-expected US private employment data strengthening hopes of a less restrictive monetary policy.
Rupee Movement Continues to Influence Domestic Gold Prices
For Indian investors, movements in international gold prices are only one of several factors determining domestic bullion rates. The rupee’s exchange rate against the US dollar also plays an important role in shaping local prices.
According to the market update, the rupee was trading around ₹95.22 against the US dollar. Fluctuations in the exchange rate, along with import-related costs and domestic demand, can either amplify or offset changes in international gold prices.
As a result, domestic bullion prices may not always move in line with global markets, particularly during periods of heightened currency volatility.
Key Market Indicators
| Indicator | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| ADP Private Payrolls (July) | 44,000 jobs |
| Revised ADP Payrolls (June) | 95,000 jobs |
| Weekly US Jobless Claims | 199,000 |
| Expected Jobless Claims | 205,000 |
| Rupee Against US Dollar | ₹95.22 |
| Crude Oil Movement | Down more than 7% during the week |
Motilal Oswal Sees Volatility Before Gold Resumes Long-Term Uptrend
Looking ahead, Motilal Oswal expects gold prices to remain sensitive to macroeconomic developments rather than geopolitical events alone during the second half of 2026. According to the brokerage’s outlook, inflation trends, US economic data and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions are likely to play a more significant role in determining the direction of bullion prices.
The brokerage believes that uncertainty over future monetary policy, along with developments in the Middle East, could keep gold prices volatile in the near term. While the broader outlook remains constructive, it has cautioned that bullion could witness a 6% to 8% correction before resuming its longer-term upward trend.
Despite the possibility of short-term fluctuations, Motilal Oswal maintains a positive outlook for gold over the coming months, supported by expectations that easing inflation and evolving central bank policy could continue to support investor demand.
Gold Price Outlook: Targets for International and Domestic Markets
In its market outlook, Motilal Oswal projected that international gold prices could rise to $4,800 per ounce in the next phase of the rally and eventually move above $5,500 per ounce over the following 12 to 15 months.
For the domestic market, the brokerage expects MCX gold to target around ₹1,68,000 per 10 grams before advancing towards ₹1,93,000 per 10 grams over the longer term. The projections reflect the firm’s expectation that macroeconomic factors will remain the primary drivers of bullion prices.
| Motilal Oswal Gold Outlook | Projection |
|---|---|
| Near-Term View | Volatility likely to continue |
| Possible Correction | 6% to 8% |
| International Gold Target | $4,800 per ounce |
| Long-Term International Target | Above $5,500 per ounce (12–15 months) |
| MCX Gold Target | ₹1,68,000 per 10 grams |
| Long-Term MCX Target | ₹1,93,000 per 10 grams |
What Investors Will Watch Next
With gold trading near record levels, market participants are expected to closely monitor a series of economic and geopolitical developments that could influence bullion prices in the coming weeks. The immediate focus remains on the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to offer fresh signals on the health of the labour market and the likely trajectory of Federal Reserve policy.
Investors will also keep a close watch on next week’s US inflation data, movements in the US dollar, Treasury yields and any further developments in the Middle East. These factors are expected to remain key drivers of sentiment across global precious metals markets.
Key Takeaways
- MCX gold futures for October delivery rose ₹1,272 to ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams.
- International gold futures climbed to $4,287.50 per ounce.
- Gold has gained around 5% during the week.
- Lower Treasury yields, a weaker US dollar and easing inflation expectations continued to support bullion prices.
- Crude oil declined by more than 7% during the week, helping ease inflation concerns.
- Markets are awaiting the US non-farm payrolls report and next week’s US inflation data for fresh direction.
- Motilal Oswal expects short-term volatility but remains positive on gold’s longer-term outlook.
- The brokerage sees international gold targeting $4,800 and later above $5,500, while MCX gold is projected to reach ₹1,68,000 and later ₹1,93,000 per 10 grams.
Although short-term price movements are likely to remain influenced by incoming economic data and policy expectations, bullion continues to attract investor interest as markets assess the outlook for inflation, interest rates and global economic conditions.
